Skies over the interior of Tamil Nadu clear up ahead of the next big spell

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Skies in the interior of Tamil Nadu cleared briefly on Monday, except for Chennai and surrounding areas on the north coast, after the collapse of the trough that linked the Comorin region (southeast of the Sea of ‘Oman) to the cyclonic circulation over the southeast Bay of Bengal. The truncated trough now connects South East Bay to South West Bay off the coasts of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu.

Brief lull expected

This will provide a brief lull after the intense thunderstorms that have hit the region for the past two days until an area of ​​low pressure bringing rain, the first of the season, forms over the southwestern bay in the off the coast of Sri Lanka in the next few days (by Wednesday). The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) expects it to head northwest towards the Tamil Nadu-Puducherry coast, with a slight intensification possible over the next two days (by Friday).

But the IMD has predicted strong winds with wind speeds of 45-55 km/h gusting to 65 km/h (near-cyclonic force), which will prevail on the coasts of Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh Thursday and Friday. Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls will likely impact the Andaman and Nicobar Islands which is expected to continue on Tuesday.

Isolated heavy rain likely

Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning is likely over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe and southern Andhra Pradesh from Friday. Very heavy isolated falls are also likely over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Karaikal on Friday. An extended weekend outlook hinted at the possibility of fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall over parts of the Southern Peninsula and over Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands, with isolated heavy falls likely over Tamil Nadu and the Kerala.

Seen “low” successor

IMD numerical model predictions hint at the development of a successor “low” after a parent circulation drifts from the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea into the bay. It could at least intensify into a depression off the coasts of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu by November 16, when forecasts are available. The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction tends to more or less agree, pointing to a “very rainy week” ending November 15.

Western Disruptions

Meanwhile, in the north of the country, this week could prove wet and cold, with a western disturbance producing rain and snow waiting over Afghanistan to move into Pakistan and the northwest of India. A successive disturbance should set in and affect the region from Wednesday. IMD has predicted fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall or snowfall over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh, while it will continue to be isolated light to moderate over Uttarakhand from Wednesday to Friday. Isolated light rain to a drizzle is likely over northern Punjab and northern Haryana during the period and over northern Rajasthan on Tuesday.

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